Good morning. Most of the votes forged on “Tremendous Thursday” are nonetheless being counted and at this time there will probably be explicit deal with Scotland, the place the SNP will win – however with its possibilities of having an absolute majority now trying slim. That is what Prof Sir John Curtice, the main psephologist, advised the At the moment programme this morning in regards to the state of the competition in Scotland.
There may be nonetheless an opportunity however in reality it’s a distant probability. It rests on whether or not or not the SNP can decide up Galloway and Aberdeenshire West, these two Conservative-held marginal seats, however these do look extra like an extended shot.
And it additionally is determined by whether or not or not they will decide up a few checklist seats, one within the Highlands and one within the south of Scotland. However they would want to get at the least three of these 4 seats of their lap and the reality is, on the proof of what we’ve seen to date, they are going to be fortunate to make it.
So we’re in all probability not an SNP general majority.
However there will probably be a majority of pro-independence MSPs, ie the SNP and the Greens together.
Unionists argue that, with out an absolute majority, Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP chief and Scotland’s first minister, would discover it tougher to assert that she has a mandate to name a second independence referendum. However nationalists argue that what counts is having a majority of MSPs in favour of independence and, as Curtice says, this end result is for certain.
Final evening Sturgeon stated that, with a majority of MSPs backing independence, it might be “absurd” to argue that Scotland mustn’t have a referendum. She stated:
If this was in virtually another democracy on this planet it might be an absurd dialogue.
If folks in Scotland vote for a pro-independence majority within the Scottish parliament, no politician has received the fitting to face in the best way of that.
However Johnson has restated his opposition to permitting one. In an interview with the Each day Telegraph he stated:
My impression was that they [the SNP] moved away from the thought of a referendum, and I believe very correctly.
As a result of I don’t suppose that is something just like the time to have extra constitutional wrangling, to be speaking about ripping our nation aside, when truly folks wish to heal our economic system and bounce ahead collectively. That’s what folks need.
Nevertheless Johnson has not categorically dominated out ever permitting a second referendum, and when the Telegraph requested him if it was true that privately he has stated he would by no means sanction one, Johnson simply replied: “I believe a referendum within the present context is irresponsible and reckless. Let me depart it at that.”
At the moment we expect this argument to develop as counting continues in Scotland.
However we’re additionally getting one other slew of election outcomes for councils and mayoral contests in England, together with the elections for mayors in London, Higher Manchester and the West Midlands, and outcomes are nonetheless being counted in Wales.
Right here is our outcomes tracker with the outcomes to date.
And you may learn our complete elections protection right here.
I’m afraid we’re having to launch with the feedback turned off, however we must always have the ability to flip them on later.
I attempt to monitor the feedback under the road (BTL) however it’s unimaginable to learn all of them. You probably have a direct query, do embrace “Andrew” in it someplace and I’m extra prone to discover it. I do attempt to reply questions, and if they’re of basic curiosity, I’ll put up the query and reply above the road (ATL), though I can’t promise to do that for everybody.
If you wish to entice my consideration rapidly, it’s in all probability higher to make use of Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.