The playoffs are upon us, together with the first-ever Monday Night time Soccer postseason affair. In fact, it was all enjoyable for individuals who had been tailing the column all through the marketing campaign, however getting content material can be simply foolish. We wish extra, like extending this 10-game over/underneath profitable streak that we closed the 12 months on.
Over/Unders: 13-3-1
Spreads: 10-7
Teasers: 7-10
Props: 8-9
Total File*: 38-29-1, +11.87 items
*Every over/underneath graded to win 2 items; all the pieces else for 1 unit. Playoffs are half
Greatest Over/Beneath Guess
New England Patriots at Buffalo Payments
Over/Beneath: 44
There are occasions the place the climate can single-handedly dictate a profitable wager. This most definitely is a kind of occasions.
Temperatures are being forecasted round 5 levels with a harsh wind chill that may make it really feel even lower than that. Usually, Buffalo sports activities one of many coldest climates across the league this time of 12 months, however that is only a complete ‘nother stage.
These two AFC East rivals ought to already be accustomed to enjoying one another in unforgiving climate. Their first encounter in the course of the season was a memorable one on Monday Night time Soccer final month — particularly for visibly insane wind gusts. The consequence was a innocent 14-10 rating.
Tonight’s Wild Card bout gained’t characteristic almost the identical heavy windy exercise, however the circumstances arguably could also be harder. At the least in that aforementioned MNF matchup, they received a comparatively a lot friendlier temperature of round 30 levels.
But the linesmakers are principally saying the frigid parts set for this night are 4 factors simpler to navigate by than that first assembly, which closed with an over/underneath of 40 proper earlier than kickoff.
To cite Stone Chilly Steve Austin, “Eh eh!” Both method, we’ll take benefit.
Enjoying in such a glacial atmosphere is clearly actually troublesome. That’s why Josh Allen, who usually electrifies, has struggled in these circumstances regardless of his upbringing on the College of Wyoming.
Based on ESPN’s Payments reporter Alaina Getzenberg, the fourth-year professional has made 5 profession begins in freezing game-time temperatures and amassed a 6-7 TD/INT ratio in these outings whereas finishing simply 50.3 % of his throws.
To place into perspective of how minimal that’s, Getzenberg provides that of the 41 quarterbacks to have registered a minimum of 5 begins with such a chilly throughout the final 15 years, solely Tim Tebow (!) has a decrease completion proportion (42 %)
Not precisely a glowing endorsement for Allen, particularly when having to face an excellent protection. True, he did lead his Payments to 33 factors in opposition to the Patriots in a vital victory three weeks in the past, however that got here in a lot simpler climate to take care of.
In addition to, you understand Invoice Belichick will devise one thing to stop one other outburst. No one clowns Belichick twice in a row.
Mac Jones, in the meantime, can also present consolation for underneath backers right here. A Florida native that spent his notable collegiate profession at Alabama, Jones merely gained’t be ready to place up huge numbers. As it’s, within the three video games he performed this season as a rookie with temperatures of 40 levels or decrease, Jones collectively managed a meager 77.6 passer ranking.
Nicely, you understand the Patriots’ teaching workers is conscious of this and the actual fact Jones didn’t look nice in opposition to the Payments in each 2021 conferences (although to be honest, he solely tried three passes within the Wind Recreation). The Payments had the NFL’s No. 1 cross protection this 12 months, yielding the fewest yards per recreation (163) by the air in addition to the bottom passer ranking (65.3).
Such a mindset lends the idea that New England will deploy a run-heavy recreation plan — this technique received them their lone win reverse Buffalo and noticed them rush the soccer a whopping 46 occasions!
Something near that will wholeheartedly be welcomed. The Patriots do possess one of many higher 1-2 punches within the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, however as long as the Payments can reduce the massive runs, underneath bettors can be in great form because the clock continues to tick.
Being so near 45, crucial quantity in soccer totals, I like to recommend shopping for a degree to have that further crutch. Choose: UNDER 45 (-130)
Greatest Unfold Guess
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Unfold: 49ers +3/Cowboys -3
Fairly stunning to see this one from Dallas garner such a low unfold; the bottom, in truth, of Wild Card weekend.
I can’t start to consider the linesmakers’ reasoning. The Cowboys had been a official juggernaut all through the season (most memorably overlaying the unfold in every of their first eight video games), en route to simply capturing a division title. San Francisco, alternatively, barely squeaked by to even qualify for the playoffs because of an extra time win in Week 18. It must be clear who the higher workforce is — and assuredly by greater than a three-point edge at dwelling.
Thus, we’re going to maintain issues easy and depend on the Cowboys right here to simply emerge by a minimum of a area aim. There’s positively been no indicators of carrying down on that sideline, as evident within the 236 factors they’ve held on the scoreboard the final seven weeks. That’s 33.7 per recreation!
The 49ers, after all, trot out a far superior protection to many of the ones Dallas confronted throughout their present scorching streak on offense. Nevertheless, their energy is attending to the quarterback, illustrated by the 48 sacks they notched to tie for fifth within the league, however that could possibly be minimized by a really stout offensive line.
The place the Cowboys can capitalize is within the turnover division. San Francisco is one among three groups within the postseason that completed the 12 months with a detrimental turnover differential (-4), and given how “them Boys” tied for the perfect such mark amongst all 32 golf equipment (+14), this needs to be an space of curiosity for these betting the house aspect.
Regardless of, I simply belief a gifted Dallas offense to maintain it going — and at Jerry’s World, the place they’ve been most deadly. Of their eight video games this season in entrance of Cowboys devoted, Dak and Co. averaged greater than 36 factors, topping 30 in all however two of them. That’s consistency, and they need to trip that previous a 49ers group solely lucky to be on this present place. Choose: COWBOYS -3 (-110)
Greatest Teaser Guess (3-game, 10 factors)
Buccaneers -10 —> PK
Chiefs -12.5 —> -2.5
ARI-LAR O49.5 —> O39.5
Teasers have been actual tough this 12 months contemplating all the large upsets being performed by double-digit underdogs.
Within the playoffs now, although, let’s hope there’s usually extra of a way of urgency from should-be victors — beginning with the reigning world champs as they start their title protection within the subsequent stage.
That shouldn’t be asking an excessive amount of. The Bucs have continued to look robust even after shedding Chris Godwin (ACL) for the season, and Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and Lavonte David (foot) missed current weeks as effectively. Fortunately, the latter two seem like they’ll be again. Near full energy once more, Tom Brady appears poised to pad his legendary 34-11 postseason document Sunday afternoon.
Within the nightcap, Kansas Metropolis hosts the Steelers in maybe Huge Ben’s last recreation. Truly, scratch that; take away “maybe” and safely decree that is it for Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh, an unquestionably worse workforce than some contenders that didn’t advance (such because the Chargers), isn’t going into KC and knocking off the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Bear in mind, the Chiefs have gained 9 of 10 coming in and are as scorching as anyone.
If we make it previous Sunday, that simply leaves the primary Monday evening postseason recreation in historical past remaining. Apparently, the Cardinals and Rams did collide on a Monday Night time Soccer broadcast only a month in the past (thus turning into the primary rivalry to share two MNF contests in the identical 12 months), and like their first showdown, that featured loads of motion. The truth is, their pair of conferences churned out 110 factors complete between the 2 NFC West residents. All we’re looking for here’s a mere 40 or extra.
Greatest Participant Prop Guess
Odell Beckham Jr. Over/Beneath 3.5 Receptions
Laborious to consider the final time Beckham appeared in a playoff recreation was 5 years in the past throughout his New York Giants tenure.
He’s had his ups and downs on and off the sector since then, however now it could be protected to trip Beckham as he makes his return to postseason soccer. The previous first-round draft decide is in a spot to succeed.
One, after being jettisoned by the Browns round midseason, Beckham has been on a mission to show he’s nonetheless that very same higher echelon receiver so many individuals fell in love with — or a minimum of near that.
Beckham took just a little time to settle in however now’s usually getting concerned once more, therefore why he’s been on the receiving finish of about 6.5 targets on common the previous seven weeks. I believe he’ll garner extra.
As highlighted in our teaser wager, this Cardinals-Rams tilt ought to characteristic loads of offense, identical to the primary two matchups.
With that being the case, anticipate Beckham to be significantly concerned. If he sees a minimum of seven throws his method like I anticipate, that ought to simply translate to 4 grabs.
Choose: OVER 3.5 Receptions (-120)
