As Russia lastly positive aspects floor in japanese Ukraine, a reminder why it issues little

I’ve by no means understood Ukraine’s protection of Severodonetsk. I posted this picture on Could 26…

… and wrote: 

I circled Sloviansk and Kramatorsk within the map above as a reminder, that even when Russia takes Severodonetsk (possible) and Lysychansk (much less possible), any such advance will crash on the gates of [the] closely fortified cities [of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk], with clear provide traces and artillery assist to their west. Actually, I’ve not often questioned Ukrainian technique, however their protection of Severodonetsk, on the incorrect facet of the Donets River, is really perplexing.

Not solely is Lysychansk a lot simpler to defend behind the pure barrier of the river, however it’s nearer to Ukrainian artillery assist.

It seems that Ukraine despatched M777 howitzers proper as much as Lysychansk, and whereas they’ve wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s rear areas, we have now video of at the very least three of them destroyed this previous week (here’s two of them). None of them have been geolocated, so possibly they had been positioned elsewhere within the Donbas, however probably the most prevalent long-distance fires in Russian territory fan out from the Lysychansk space: 

Anyway, I rehash that outdated submit as a result of Ukraine is now down to at least one slice of Severodonetsk and its last retreat is imminent. In the meantime, Russian forces lastly punched by means of Ukrainian defenses north of Popasna and are approaching Lysychansk from the south. 

In contrast to Severodonets, Lysychansk is totally defensible. Russia is blocked from its japanese method by the Donets river, and at the moment protected from its western method due to the identical river. (Russian makes an attempt to cross it have met with unmitigated large-scale catastrophe to date.) Thus, Russia’s solely method in the mean time is from the south. And have a look at what that appears like on a reduction map:

Dem Mon on twitter has marked the areas of Russian advance and Ukrainian defenses. I added emphasis to the collection of heights that overlook the method into city. Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at that method: 

There are two entrances into Lysychansk from that southern method. The one on the east is a slim hall between bluff and river. Not solely is it a pure ambush level, however may even be blockadable. It should actually be mined to excessive heaven, requiring Russia to de-mine below hearth. Here’s a Google Maps road view from the foot of the hill with a pleasant, clear view of that street heading up north. Notice the ample human infrastructure alongside the freeway, permitting for harassment of Russian forces all the best way into city.  

The broader western method runs between two units of bluffs, pure ambush factors, and there may be loads of this sort of infrastructure on the best way into city: 

Sure, Russia will stage that. However that may take time, and Russia pays with blood for each meter it advances. With their western flanks unsecured, Ukrainian counter-battery hearth can persevering with harassing Russian artillery, and doubly in order HIMARS rocket artillery arrives imminently. 

And we haven’t even entered Lyschansk correct, a metropolis with a pre-war inhabitants of 100,000. It has taken Russia three weeks and counting to take a metropolis on an remoted salient, on the very finish of Ukrainian-held territory. Lysychansk is far simpler to defend, reinforce, and resupply (no blown bridges).

And you recognize what? Even Lysychansk doesn’t matter strategically! Russia can crow all it desires about conquering all of Luhansk Oblast, however the Donbas additionally consists of Donetsk Oblast, and Ukraine holds 1000’s of sq. miles of it. And Russia can’t conquer it with out going by means of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. 

Looking at map closeups skews perspective, so let’s put these two cities of their broader context: 

Small circle on the appropriate is the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk pocket. The small circle to the left is Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and the massive circle is just about the remaining Ukrainian-held territory within the Donbas. At present tempo, that includes horrifying losses, that’ll solely take Russia … nonetheless not doing the mathematics. An extended f’n time. And that’s assuming they by some means work out easy methods to repair their logistical points. Heck, logistics may even hamper Russia’s southern method towards Lysychansk. I would not be shocked if Russia’s “flatten it, then march into the rubble” technique doesn’t give them Lysychansk in a month or two, however I additionally wouldn’t be shocked if Ukraine holds on. All due to logistics. 

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Ukraine has been focusing on Russian provide and ammunition depots over the previous week to spectacular impact. A lot of that’s credited to longer-range artillery like M777 howitzers from Australia, Canada, and america, and Caesar self-propelled weapons from France. But a number of of those strikes are additional lengthy vary, utilizing Soviet-era Tochka-U rockets (like here, here, and here). 

We knew Ukraine had them, however the truth that they’re nonetheless firing them this deep into the battle is stunning. Both they’ve ungodly endurance in utilizing them, or they’ve been getting resupplied by former Soviet states (Czechoslovakia, Slovakia, Poland, and East Germany all had them however had been retired, and Bulgaria had a handful remaining in service).  

If that they had these rockets all alongside, why not hit these ammo dumps sooner? One chance is partisan exercise. Stories are spreading of partisan acts in occupied territories, with Russian troopers and Ukrainian collaborators being assassinated by ambush or improvised explosives. Many additionally suspect these partisans are uncovering the situation of those ammo dumps and passing coordinates to the Ukrainian military. Among the outcomes have been spectacular, like this one:

The on-the-ground footage is apocalyptic: 

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